Sat, Apr 5, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 0, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 04 | 011 | 011 | 026 |
| NJD | 07 | 25 | 24 | 416 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:56NJDTimo MeierPPGWGAssists: Luke Hughes, Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 12:23NJDJesper BrattSHAssists: Nico Hischier, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.30 xG0–2
- P3 14:59NJDTimo MeierAssists: Seamus Casey, Dawson Mercer · Snap, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 16:12NJDNico HischierENAssists: Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.82 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:23NJDJustin Dowling: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:52NYRSam Carrick: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:49NJDDawson Mercer: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:49NJDTimo Meier: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:49NYRVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:22NYRWill Borgen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowling won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Brodzinski – Cuylle8:27
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Carrick – Berard7:40
xG 0.32–0.24 (58%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Cuylle – Othmann2:11
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Othmann8:28
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Fox13:54
xG 0.55–0.30 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Borgen – Miller14:25
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider16:35
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Meier – Mercer11:06
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Noesen – Bratt – Hischier11:24
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tatar – Dowling – Palat7:57
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Sprong – Glass – Cotter8:26
xG 0.08–0.24 (25%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes19:06
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Kovacevic16:07
xG 0.70–0.54 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Dillon – Casey11:52
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).