Sun, Apr 6, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 011 | 110 | 129 |
| CHI | 06 | 19 | 216 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:55CHIFrank NazarSHAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P3 9:40CHIIlya MikheyevGWGAssists: Connor Bedard, Sam Rinzel · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 14:36PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Ville Koivunen · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 19:04CHIIlya MikheyevENAssists: Nick Foligno, Joseph Veleno · Wrist, 0.82 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 17:01CHIJoseph Veleno: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:14CHIOliver Moore: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:06PITMatt Grzelcyk: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:20CHITyler Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Koivunen12:50
xG 1.31–0.42 (76%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Hayes – Koppanen – Dewar7:05
xG 0.10–0.28 (27%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – McGroarty13:56
xG 0.48–0.68 (41%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Heinen – Acciari – Lizotte8:06
xG 0.27–0.54 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Grzelcyk17:02
xG 0.80–0.62 (56%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Timmins11:52
xG 0.69–0.64 (52%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk2:20
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Veleno – Reichel9:33
xG 0.50–0.04 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Kurashev – Slaggert – Moore8:53
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Donato – Mikheyev – Bedard12:52
xG 0.67–0.61 (52%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar11:00
xG 0.22–1.39 (14%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaiser – Levshunov12:13
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Rinzel14:11
xG 0.75–0.46 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Levshunov2:02
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).