Wed, Apr 9, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 210 | 09 | 19 | 13 | 431 |
| TBL | 18 | 012 | 26 | 02 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews · Slap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 3:33TORMatthew KniesAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 18:58TBLNick PerbixAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 0:50TBLOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 2:03TORMatthew KniesPPAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.28 xG3–2
- P3 11:05TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 2:56TORMatthew KniesGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.31 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:42TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:01TORScott Laughton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:18TBLEmil Lilleberg: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 3:24TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:24TORMatthew Knies: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:38TORMax Domi: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:25TORBobby McMann: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:25TORBobby McMann: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:25TBLBrayden Point: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).