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Ice Lab

Wed, Apr 9, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York

Philadelphia Flyers 8, New York Rangers 5

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

8

Final

Home

New York Rangers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.

NYR winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI0528617830
NYR11211037529

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:33NYRVincent TrocheckSHAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jonathan Quick · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
  2. P2 9:03PHITyson FoersterAssists: Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 16:43PHIGarnet HathawaySHAssists: Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
  4. P2 18:32NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Urho Vaakanainen · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
  5. P3 3:05PHITravis SanheimAssists: Noah Cates, Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
  6. P3 5:38NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Urho Vaakanainen, Braden Schneider · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
  7. P3 7:01NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Will Cuylle · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
  8. P3 8:01PHIJakob PelletierAssists: Owen Tippett, Ryan Poehling · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–4
  9. P3 11:55PHISean CouturierAssists: Matvei Michkov, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
  10. P3 15:33PHITyson FoersterGWGAssists: Travis Sanheim, Nick Seeler · Slap, 0.10 xG6–4
  11. P3 18:10NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.15 xG6–5
  12. P3 19:05PHITyson FoersterENAssists: Bobby Brink, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.57 xG7–5
  13. P3 19:47PHIOwen TippettENAssists: Sean Couturier, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.43 xG8–5
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 1:15PHICam York: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
  2. P1 6:52PHIKarsen Dorwart: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 9:34NYRBrett Berard: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 12:09PHIJakob Pelletier: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 16:17PHINick Seeler: Holding2 min
  6. P3 19:53PHIGarnet Hathaway: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Poehling
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHINYR
30Shots on goal29
4.2Expected goals2.7
48Shot attempts62
31Faceoffs won36
1Power plays3
16Penalty minutes2
29Hits22
18Blocked shots7
17Giveaways21
4Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 2.7 xGPHI 4.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #18 of 1312 this seasonSwing 3.05 · 13 goals in reachComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +37 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.

NYR winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).