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Ice Lab

Wed, Apr 9, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim

Calgary Flames 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)

Away

Calgary Flames

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Anaheim Ducks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.

ANA winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
CGY01311121500339
ANA070531011423

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 14:18CGYMikael BacklundAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Joel Hanley · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P3 11:49ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Oliver Kylington · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P3 13:44CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Joel Farabee, Joel Hanley · Snap, 0.25 xG2–1
  4. P3 15:18CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
  5. P3 16:03ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Olen Zellweger, Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
  6. P3 16:11ANACutter GauthierAssists: Leo Carlsson, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
  7. OT 1:11ANACutter GauthierGWGAssists: Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 6:46ANALeo Carlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 13:42CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 16:40ANAPavel Mintyukov: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 4:46ANARadko Gudas: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 17:21ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 4:28ANAOliver Kylington: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 8:24ANADrew Helleson: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Carlsson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYANA
39Shots on goal23
3.0Expected goals2.3
67Shot attempts54
32Faceoffs won25
6Power plays1
2Penalty minutes12
8Hits16
16Blocked shots11
19Giveaways23
2Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 2.3 xGCGY 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANACGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #65 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.64 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 2% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.

ANA winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).