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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 10, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington

Carolina Hurricanes 4, Washington Capitals 5 (SO)

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Washington Capitals

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.

WSH winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CAR2150929010434
WSH1531605021528

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:42CARLogan StankovenAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P1 7:14CARJackson BlakeAssists: Seth Jarvis · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
  3. P1 18:06WSHPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Rasmus Sandin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
  4. P2 10:50WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.26 xG2–2
  5. P2 16:51WSHNic DowdAssists: Brandon Duhaime, John Carlson · Bat, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P2 17:29WSHTom WilsonAssists: Connor McMichael · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
  7. P3 4:42CARJordan MartinookAssists: Brent Burns, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.01 xG3–4
  8. P3 18:15CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. WSH Pierre-Luc Dubois scored
  2. 2. CAR Jackson Blake stopped
  3. 3. WSH John Carlson stopped
  4. 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
  5. 5. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
  6. 6. CAR Sean Walker stopped
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 3:36WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
  2. P1 6:08CARJalen Chatfield: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 6:08WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 17:04CARSean Walker: Slashing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 9:43CARSeth Jarvis: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. OT 1:27CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARWSH
34Shots on goal28
4.5Expected goals4.5
84Shot attempts56
37Faceoffs won20
1Power plays3
11Penalty minutes7
12Hits31
12Blocked shots21
18Giveaways25
2Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 4.5 xGCAR 4.5 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 94/100 · #82 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.36 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +39 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.

WSH winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).