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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 12, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Utah Hockey Club 5, Dallas Stars 3

Away

Utah Hockey Club

5

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 65% of the time.

DAL winsUTA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
UTA111312111534
DAL1102707324

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:48DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:11UTABarrett HaytonPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Dylan Guenther · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 0:32DALBrendan SmithSHAssists: Colin Blackwell, Sam Steel · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P2 1:21UTASean DurziPPAssists: Logan Cooley, Jack McBain · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P2 7:04UTALogan CooleyAssists: Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
  6. P2 18:06UTAJosh DoanPPGWGAssists: Jack McBain, Logan Cooley · Snap, 0.35 xG4–2
  7. P2 18:53DALJason RobertsonAssists: Mathew Dumba, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.15 xG4–3
  8. P3 5:32UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Barrett Hayton, Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 2:36UTAMichael Kesselring: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:36UTAIan Cole: Holding the stick2 min
  3. P1 7:48DALOskar Bäck: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 14:03UTAIan Cole: High sticking2 min
  5. P1 19:58DALLian Bichsel: Roughing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 16:35DALAlexander Petrovic: High sticking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 5:22DALMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 15:15UTAMikhail Sergachev: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

UTA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← UTA attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Blackwell won the faceoff against Kerfoot
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

UTADAL
34Shots on goal24
4.2Expected goals3.1
57Shot attempts44
32Faceoffs won32
4Power plays4
8Penalty minutes8
13Hits11
7Blocked shots8
16Giveaways16
4Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.1 xGUTA 4.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALUTA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 71/100 · #375 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.57 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
UTA 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 65% of the time.

DAL winsUTA wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − UTA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).