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Ice Lab

Mon, Apr 14, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Dallas Stars 4, Detroit Red Wings 6

Away

Dallas Stars

4

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.

DET winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL1721417428
DET214010413637

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:27DETAlbert JohanssonAssists: Dylan Larkin, Jonatan Berggren · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:15DALLian BichselAssists: Jamie Benn, Mikko Rantanen · Poke, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. P1 13:52DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Marco Kasper · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
  4. P2 9:00DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P2 11:25DALColin BlackwellSHAssists: Sam Steel, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.36 xG3–2
  6. P3 1:15DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
  7. P3 4:19DETMoritz SeiderPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
  8. P3 9:49DETLucas RaymondGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG3–5
  9. P3 12:56DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jamie Benn, Brendan Smith · Snap, 0.21 xG4–5
  10. P3 18:04DETVladimir TarasenkoENAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.82 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 11:07DALRoope Hintz: Holding the stick2 min
  2. P2 1:41DETSimon Edvinsson: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 6:32DETSimon Edvinsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P2 11:06DALJamie Benn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P3 4:16DALEvgenii Dadonov: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P3 13:48DETJeff Petry: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kasper won the faceoff against Benn
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALDET
28Shots on goal37
3.8Expected goals3.4
55Shot attempts58
39Faceoffs won25
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
17Hits20
11Blocked shots12
13Giveaways17
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.4 xGDAL 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #132 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.02 · 10 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.

DET winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).