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Ice Lab

Mon, Apr 14, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver

San Jose Sharks 1, Vancouver Canucks 2 (OT)

Away

San Jose Sharks

1

Final

Overtime

Home

Vancouver Canucks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 97% of the time.

VAN winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
SJS03170501116
VAN0120711018237

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:20SJSMacklin CelebriniPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Luca Cagnoni · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P3 9:03VANLinus KarlssonAssists: Teddy Blueger, Drew O'Connor · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. OT 4:42VANJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 2:11VANVictor Mancini: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 9:18SJSLuca Cagnoni: High sticking double minor4 min
  3. P2 3:19VANVictor Mancini: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 13:48SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 17:21VANVictor Mancini: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 3:47SJSTimothy Liljegren: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 6:06SJSTy Dellandrea: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Celebrini won the faceoff against Suter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSVAN
16Shots on goal37
1.7Expected goals6.3
37Shot attempts85
25Faceoffs won22
3Power plays5
10Penalty minutes6
18Hits17
16Blocked shots9
11Giveaways14
6Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 6.3 xGSJS 1.7 xG
0246P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 47/100 · #692 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.50 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 20% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +34 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 97% of the time.

VAN winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).