Wed, Apr 16, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 5, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 17 | 310 | 527 |
| NJD | 010 | 07 | 213 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:07DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 5:20DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 2:55DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 11:32NJDErik HaulaPPAssists: Daniel Sprong, Seamus Casey · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 14:21NJDDawson MercerAssists: Erik Haula, Mike Hardman · Snap, 0.33 xG3–2
- P3 17:09DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 19:50DETMarco KasperENAssists: Lucas Raymond, Jonatan Berggren · Wrist, 0.77 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:33NJDBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:06DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:30NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:02NJDDaniel Sprong: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:14DETSimon Edvinsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:50NJDSimon Nemec: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:25DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:15DETJ.T. Compher: Holding2 min
- P3 16:15NJDCody Glass: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Kasper11:03
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Smith – Watson – Motte5:56
xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Compher – Rasmussen9:42
xG 0.36–0.53 (40%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Larkin – Berggren – Raymond10:23
xG 0.14–0.48 (23%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson13:06
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Petry – Chiarot13:09
xG 0.31–0.89 (26%)attempts 14–22goals 1–0
- Lagesson – Johansson10:51
xG 0.06–0.69 (8%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Mercer – Hardman7:57
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Sprong – Glass – Foote9:43
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Tatar – Dowling – Bastian8:18
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- MacDermid – Lazar – McLaughlin6:12
xG 0.07–0.10 (39%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Hamilton12:00
xG 1.11–0.16 (87%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Cholowski2:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Hamilton2:03
xG 0.04–0.01 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).