Thu, Apr 17, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 15 | 110 | 29 | 424 |
| BUF | 313 | 110 | 18 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35BUFAlex TuchAssists: Jason Zucker, Jacob Bernard-Docker · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:49BUFPeyton KrebsSHAssists: Alex Tuch, Connor Clifton · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 15:09PHIMatvei MichkovPPAssists: Tyson Foerster, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 16:11BUFJack QuinnAssists: Ryan McLeod, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 1:24BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Ryan McLeod, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 7:11PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 0:15PHITyson FoersterAssists: Noah Cates, Bobby Brink · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:12BUFRyan McLeodENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.81 xG3–5
- P3 19:41PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Matvei Michkov, Ryan Poehling · Slap, 0.05 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:36BUFJacob Bernard-Docker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 5:04PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:01BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kulich won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Michkov13:55
xG 0.84–0.56 (60%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
- Cates – Brink – Foerster11:08
xG 0.23–0.25 (49%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Pelletier8:43
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Tippett – Poehling – Kaplan10:40
xG 0.40–0.57 (41%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Sanheim17:18
xG 0.90–0.39 (70%)attempts 23–14goals 2–0
- York – Drysdale17:08
xG 0.26–0.77 (26%)attempts 10–22goals 0–2
- Zamula – Andrae14:17
xG 0.21–0.89 (19%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Quinn – Peterka13:32
xG 0.93–0.52 (64%)attempts 22–11goals 2–0
- Thompson – Kulich – Benson14:05
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Zucker – Tuch – Krebs10:05
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Rosen – Ostlund6:19
xG 0.15–0.29 (35%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Bernard-Docker14:12
xG 0.82–0.31 (73%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin17:57
xG 0.71–0.65 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Clifton – Byram14:18
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).