Wed, Oct 8, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Boston Bruins 3, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 05 | 16 | 211 | 322 |
| WSH | 08 | 017 | 111 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:07BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Morgan Geekie · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 7:03WSHTom WilsonAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 7:41BOSElias LindholmPPGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 19:02BOSMorgan GeekieENAssists: David Pastrnak, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.66 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:51BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:46WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P1 13:06BOSSean Kuraly: Interference2 min
- P1 19:13BOSHenri Jokiharju: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:19BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:42BOSMark Kastelic: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:18WSHJohn Carlson: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Minten
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Kastelic – Khusnutdinov8:59
xG 0.37–0.04 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Eyssimont – Jeannot – Minten8:28
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt9:10
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie13:21
xG 0.25–0.92 (21%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy3:22
xG 0.15–0.00 (98%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Jokiharju12:39
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei10:55
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Protas5:04
xG 0.33–0.21 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – Protas5:47
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Beauvillier – Sourdif – Lapierre3:45
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Leonard2:36
xG 0.08–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry10:22
xG 0.62–0.09 (87%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Roy – Fehérváry4:44
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Carlson – Chychrun6:21
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).