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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 8, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton

Calgary Flames 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)

Away

Calgary Flames

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Edmonton Oilers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.

EDM winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CGY042718032422
EDM2911109061335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:53EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:11EDMAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P2 8:32EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: David Tomasek, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
  4. P2 12:40CGYMatvei GridinAssists: Nazem Kadri, Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P2 14:47CGYConnor ZaryPPAssists: Adam Klapka · Bat, 0.82 xG2–3
  6. P3 0:40CGYBlake ColemanUnassisted · Poke, 0.05 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
  2. 2. CGY Justin Kirkland stopped
  3. 3. EDM Leon Draisaitl scored
  4. 4. CGY Morgan Frost scored
  5. 5. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
  6. 6. CGY Rasmus Andersson stopped
  7. 7. EDM David Tomasek stopped
  8. 8. CGY Matt Coronato stopped
  9. 9. EDM Isaac Howard stopped
  10. 10. CGY Matvei Gridin stopped
  11. 11. EDM Matt Savoie stopped
  12. 12. CGY Yegor Sharangovich stopped
  13. 13. EDM Evan Bouchard stopped
  14. 14. CGY Connor Zary stopped
  15. 15. EDM Kasperi Kapanen stopped
  16. 16. CGY Nazem Kadri scored
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 8:51CGYMorgan Frost: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:04EDMDavid Tomasek: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 7:40CGYAdam Klapka: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 13:38EDMDavid Tomasek: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P3 4:47EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 8:52CGYAdam Klapka: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 18:23EDMTrent Frederic: Tripping2 min
  8. OT 3:31CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min
  9. OT 3:31CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
47% to win53% to win
← CGY attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Backlund
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYEDM
22Shots on goal35
2.4Expected goals3.4
57Shot attempts66
30Faceoffs won28
4Power plays4
18Penalty minutes8
35Hits23
17Blocked shots18
22Giveaways18
4Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Calgary Flames

Forward lines

  1. Frost – Coronato – Gridin4:47

    xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  2. Frost – Farabee – Klapka2:08

    xG 0.00–0.01 (32%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  3. Backlund – Coleman – Zary8:26

    xG 0.06–0.08 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0

  4. Backlund – Coleman – Lomberg2:54

    xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Weegar – Bahl2:08

    xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0

  2. Weegar – Hanley13:47

    xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0

  3. Bean – Pachal10:37

    xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1

Edmonton Oilers

Forward lines

  1. bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Frederic11:46

    xG 0.87–0.08 (92%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0

  2. Kapanen – Philp – Podkolzin9:57

    xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1

  3. Henrique – Howard – Tomasek6:11

    xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0

  4. Nugent-Hopkins – Mangiapane – Savoie7:29

    xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestEkholm – Bouchard16:51

    xG 1.26–0.21 (86%)attempts 23–16goals 1–0

  2. Nurse – Regula11:20

    xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1

  3. Kulak – Emberson12:03

    xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.4 xGCGY 2.4 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #167 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.93 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 5% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.

EDM winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).