Thu, Oct 9, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 4, Buffalo Sabres 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 116 | 05 | 312 | 433 |
| BUF | 011 | 014 | 012 | 037 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:43NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 14:46NYRCarson SoucyAssists: Will Borgen, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 17:11NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Braden Schneider, Alexis Lafrenière · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 17:25NYRAdam FoxENAssists: Sam Carrick · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:14BUFMason Geertsen: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:28NYRWill Cuylle: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:22NYRUrho Vaakanainen: Interference2 min
- P2 14:28NYRBraden Schneider: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:28BUFJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:58NYRWill Borgen: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 0:04BUFTage Thompson: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:54NYRWill Cuylle: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:24BUFJustin Danforth: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Edstrom – Rempe5:33
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Cuylle5:14
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Sheary – Raddysh – Laba5:38
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière4:43
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Gavrikov – Fox13:18
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Soucy – Borgen11:52
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 10–19goals 2–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider13:23
xG 0.38–0.47 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Thompson – Norris5:21
xG 0.30–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Tuch – Quinn – Kulich5:44
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Thompson – Norris – Krebs4:48
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Geertsen – Malenstyn – Danforth2:37
xG 0.00–0.00 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram15:00
xG 0.62–0.25 (71%)attempts 24–7goals 0–1
- Timmins – Samuelsson12:52
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Bryson – Johnson9:14
xG 0.07–0.41 (15%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).