Thu, Oct 9, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 211 | 15 | 322 |
| CAR | 19 | 114 | 410 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06CARTaylor HallAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Alexander Nikishin · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 8:15NJDDougie HamiltonAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 9:23CARK'Andre MillerAssists: William Carrier, Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:54NJDCody GlassAssists: Luke Hughes · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 10:21CARK'Andre MillerPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jackson Blake · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 11:38NJDJesper BrattAssists: Brett Pesce, Luke Hughes · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 17:17CARSeth JarvisGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:05CARSeth JarvisENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG3–5
- P3 19:47CAREric RobinsonAssists: Taylor Hall, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:59NJDEvgenii Dadonov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:30CARK'Andre Miller: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:51NJDPaul Cotter: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:45CARJordan Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:09NJDPaul Cotter: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:03NJDLuke Hughes: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes3:33
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer10:44
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Bratt – Hughes6:56
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Glendening – Cotter – Gritsyuk4:33
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler13:42
xG 0.53–0.48 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Hughes – Nemec2:05
xG 0.10–0.11 (50%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Nemec2:01
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Robinson – Kotkaniemi7:18
xG 0.87–0.27 (76%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Svechnikov – Stankoven – Blake9:12
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Ehlers – Aho – Jarvis10:59
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier8:22
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Nikishin14:03
xG 1.31–0.30 (81%)attempts 25–9goals 3–0
- Chatfield – Miller14:24
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Slavin – Walker13:36
xG 0.48–0.50 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).