Thu, Oct 9, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vegas Golden Knights 4, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 110 | 111 | 18 | 12 | 431 |
| SJS | 19 | 16 | 18 | 00 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:31SJSJeff SkinnerAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Shakir Mukhamadullin · Bat, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 8:09VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 6:59SJSAlexander WennbergPPAssists: William Eklund, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 14:22VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 2:59SJSPhilipp KurashevAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Shakir Mukhamadullin · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:26VGKJack EichelAssists: Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–3
- OT 1:24VGKReilly SmithGWGAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:53SJSShakir Mukhamadullin: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:35VGKWilliam Karlsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:38VGKTomas Hertl: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:31VGKMitch Marner: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:15SJSShakir Mukhamadullin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:55SJSAdam Gaudette: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:33VGKTomas Hertl: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 15:02SJSWill Smith: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudette won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Eichel – Marner11:00
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Karlsson8:32
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Sissons – Kolesar – Howden7:57
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev10:08
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Korczak6:50
xG 0.29–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:55
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Hutton – Korczak7:33
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Dellandrea – Graf7:23
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Eklund8:42
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kurashev – Smith – Celebrini14:24
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Gaudette5:16
xG 0.01–0.31 (4%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Mukhamadullin11:40
xG 0.79–0.82 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
- Ferraro – Liljegren11:57
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Leddy – Klingberg15:27
xG 0.10–0.56 (15%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).