Sat, Oct 11, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 02 | 013 | 17 | 122 |
| BOS | 117 | 19 | 15 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:48BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Jordan Harris, Andrew Peeke · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 10:21BOSMark KastelicGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 9:46BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Mattias Samuelsson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:57BOSSean KuralyENAssists: Elias Lindholm, Mark Kastelic · Tip-in, 0.83 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:41BUFConor Timmins: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:22BUFJiri Kulich: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:43BOSMorgan Geekie: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:38BOSFraser Minten: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:39BUFOwen Power: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:50BUFTage Thompson: Interference2 min
- P2 18:46BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference2 min
- P3 10:07BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kulich won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKrebs – Quinn – Doan2:47
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Zucker – Tuch – McLeod3:22
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Danforth – Krebs – Doan4:45
xG 0.05–0.03 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Geertsen – Malenstyn – Kozak3:20
xG 0.03–0.06 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bryson – Power5:52
xG 0.10–0.05 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin3:14
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Byram – Power3:13
xG 0.03–0.08 (29%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt8:42
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie10:14
xG 0.29–0.01 (96%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Kastelic – Khusnutdinov6:00
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Eyssimont – Jeannot – Minten8:38
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Lohrei13:29
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Peeke – Harris9:49
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Harris2:44
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).