Sat, Oct 11, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 14 | 314 | 212 | 630 |
| PIT | 09 | 13 | 07 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:40NYRMika ZibanejadSHAssists: Sam Carrick, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 3:04PITBen KindelAssists: Caleb Jones · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 6:06NYRAdam FoxGWGAssists: Adam Edstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 9:25NYRWill CuyllePPAssists: Conor Sheary, Noah Laba · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 16:38NYRAdam FoxPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 5:40NYRMatt RempeAssists: Adam Edstrom, Sam Carrick · Deflected, 0.16 xG5–1
- P3 14:12NYRTaylor RaddyshAssists: Noah Laba, Juuso Parssinen · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:17NYRJuuso Parssinen: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:37NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Holding2 min
- P2 7:42PITBen Kindel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:09PITParker Wotherspoon: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:22NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:33PITBen Kindel: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 19:40PITHarrison Brunicke: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:32NYRUrho Vaakanainen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Edstrom – Rempe8:44
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Lafrenière9:41
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Parssinen – Laba7:30
xG 0.22–0.53 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Miller – Sheary – Cuylle10:00
xG 0.27–0.62 (30%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Vaakanainen2:23
xG 0.54–0.14 (79%)attempts 7–1goals 2–0
- Borgen – Gavrikov3:37
xG 0.33–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider4:27
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Hallander – Kindel8:29
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte7:18
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Mantha – Brazeau9:52
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell11:41
xG 0.54–0.95 (36%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Shea5:19
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Shea9:02
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon9:26
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).