Sat, Oct 11, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Utah Mammoth 3, Nashville Predators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 111 | 03 | 18 | 11 | 323 |
| NSH | 16 | 19 | 08 | 00 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21UTALogan CooleyAssists: Dylan Guenther, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 7:23NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Brady Martin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 13:13NSHErik HaulaAssists: Luke Evangelista, Jonathan Marchessault · Deflected, 0.83 xG1–2
- P3 11:37UTAJack McBainAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- OT 2:56UTADylan GuentherGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 13:06NSHSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P1 13:06NSHSteven Stamkos: Abuse of officials2 min
- P1 18:29NSHErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:26UTADmitri Simashev: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:30UTAKevin Stenlund: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:30NSHJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:30UTAJack McBain: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:45UTASean Durzi: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:29NSHSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:29UTAIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:13UTANick Schmaltz: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:54NSHAdam Wilsby: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:37UTASean Durzi: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stenlund won the faceoff against Svechkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestPeterka – Guenther – Cooley7:42
xG 0.28–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Crouse – Stenlund – Tanev3:30
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Crouse – Stenlund – Yamamoto3:50
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – McBain7:58
xG 0.33–0.51 (39%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Durzi3:18
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Maatta – Schmidt2:56
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Simashev4:50
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Evangelista – Svechkov5:38
xG 0.34–0.07 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Martin7:11
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Haula – Marchessault – Bunting6:54
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- McCarron – Jost – Smith6:51
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Perbix13:19
xG 1.44–0.42 (78%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Josi – Wilsby15:03
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Stastney – Barron8:54
xG 0.34–0.48 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).