Tue, Oct 14, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 05 | 16 | 00 | 219 |
| WSH | 07 | 18 | 111 | 12 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 17:38WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Connor McMichael, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 1:23TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 4:56WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 1:19WSHJakob ChychrunGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.30 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:58TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:18TBLEmil Lilleberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:47WSHRyan Leonard: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:26WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:35TBLEmil Lilleberg: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:22TBLCurtis Douglas: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:22WSHJakob Chychrun: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:22WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:22TBLConor Geekie: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel12:46
xG 0.99–0.69 (59%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Douglas – Chaffee – Geekie6:22
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Goncalves11:00
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 4–11goals 1–1
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Holmberg12:59
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoser – Lilleberg5:02
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Moser12:18
xG 0.89–0.68 (57%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Crozier – Lilleberg4:02
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – McMichael – Protas10:42
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Milano – Lapierre – Leonard4:47
xG 0.24–0.12 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier12:01
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Leonard2:05
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry14:09
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 22–9goals 1–1
- Roy – Sandin14:27
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Carlson – Chychrun2:44
xG 0.07–0.18 (28%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).