Tue, Oct 14, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 014 | 010 | 217 | 241 |
| DAL | 211 | 110 | 24 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37DALEsa LindellAssists: Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 16:18DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.26 xG0–2
- P2 1:31DALMatt DuchenePPGWGAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Thomas Harley · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 3:50MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Zeev Buium, Kirill Kaprizov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 13:04MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Zeev Buium, Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 18:18DALRadek FaksaENAssists: Jason Robertson, Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.78 xG2–4
- P3 19:50DALRoope HintzENAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.82 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 15:47MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:37MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:51DALNils Lundkvist: Holding2 min
- P2 18:51DALJustin Hryckowian: Holding2 min
- P3 2:19DALAlexander Petrovic: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P3 2:19MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:19DALAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:19DALAlexander Petrovic: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 2:36DALColin Blackwell: Holding2 min
- P3 2:36MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Interference2 min
- P3 12:33DALColin Blackwell: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKaprizov – Boldy – Rossi7:35
xG 0.52–0.09 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Ohgren – Yurov6:10
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Johansson – Boldy – Rossi2:10
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy4:41
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Buium9:57
xG 0.55–0.18 (76%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber19:09
xG 0.47–0.46 (50%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton12:05
xG 0.63–0.80 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Johnston3:51
xG 0.47–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Steel5:38
xG 0.24–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Robertson6:57
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Robertson – Bourque – Johnston2:56
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Bichsel10:08
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen12:12
xG 0.82–0.63 (57%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Lundkvist – Bichsel2:34
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).