Wed, Oct 15, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 1, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 15 | 07 | 121 |
| DET | 09 | 211 | 25 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:09DETMason AppletonAssists: Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 9:36DETPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 14:05FLABrad MarchandAssists: Anton Lundell · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 18:02DETMason AppletonENAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–3
- P3 19:42DETMichael RasmussenENAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Tip-in, 0.74 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 6:35DETMarco Kasper: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:14FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:30FLANiko Mikkola: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:58DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka: Interference2 min
- P3 12:53FLAJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Reinhart – Rodrigues12:03
xG 0.87–0.36 (71%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Marchand – Bennett – Samoskevich6:11
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Bennett – Boqvist – Samoskevich3:50
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Greer – Kunin – Gadjovich6:53
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Mikkola17:21
xG 0.93–0.36 (72%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:16
xG 0.79–0.37 (68%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Petry – Balinskis9:44
xG 0.14–0.95 (13%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Appleton – Finnie11:16
xG 0.66–0.16 (80%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Soderblom6:56
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper11:31
xG 0.21–0.46 (32%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Copp – Compher – Brandsegg-Nygård9:28
xG 0.06–0.96 (5%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohansson – Edvinsson2:09
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider17:55
xG 0.78–0.75 (51%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson9:51
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).