Wed, Oct 15, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 8, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 210 | 311 | 38 | 829 |
| STL | 27 | 08 | 111 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:02CHIIlya MikheyevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 4:29STLJake NeighboursAssists: Colton Parayko, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 5:23CHILukas ReichelAssists: Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 14:54STLDylan HollowayAssists: Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 2:49CHILukas ReichelAssists: Alex Vlasic, Connor Bedard · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 4:32CHIFrank NazarGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Wyatt Kaiser · Snap, 0.15 xG4–2
- P2 8:52CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Alex Vlasic · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 1:17CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Louis Crevier, Ilya Mikheyev · Poke, 0.09 xG6–2
- P3 5:03CHITyler BertuzziPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Connor Bedard · Tip-in, 0.11 xG7–2
- P3 11:28STLTyler TuckerAssists: Jake Neighbours · Wrist, 0.01 xG7–3
- P3 12:21CHIRyan GreeneAssists: Lukas Reichel, Connor Bedard · Wrist, 0.14 xG8–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:07STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:32STLJake Neighbours: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:27CHISam Rinzel: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:56STLRobert Thomas: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:53CHILouis Crevier: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Donato – Mikheyev12:22
xG 0.77–0.25 (75%)attempts 19–9goals 3–1
- Burakovsky – Reichel – Greene2:26
xG 0.41–0.10 (81%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar10:18
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Reichel – Greene – Bedard4:10
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Rinzel11:37
xG 0.82–0.48 (63%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Levshunov5:21
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Murphy – Grzelcyk5:52
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours10:30
xG 1.11–0.68 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 2–4
- Walker – Joseph – Texier5:21
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Suter – Snuggerud4:13
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway12:04
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko15:02
xG 1.45–0.13 (92%)attempts 26–4goals 1–1
- Faulk – Broberg3:22
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Parayko – Broberg2:06
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).