Thu, Oct 16, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Rangers 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 09 | 110 | 00 | 129 |
| TOR | 19 | 010 | 04 | 11 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:48TORMatthew KniesPPAssists: William Nylander, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 4:51NYRJuuso ParssinenAssists: Braden Schneider · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- OT 0:58TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:20NYRArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:22TORDakota Joshua: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:00NYRWill Cuylle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:43TORMatthew Knies: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:58TORSimon Benoit: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Panarin – Cuylle9:04
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheary – Lafrenière9:40
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheary – Cuylle3:20
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Parssinen – Laba7:43
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox18:01
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Borgen – Robertson12:45
xG 0.55–0.29 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider2:27
xG 0.01–0.17 (3%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Robertson – McMann8:12
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Joshua – Roy6:44
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Matthews – Knies – Cowan8:34
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Nylander – Matthews – Knies3:24
xG 0.12–0.32 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carlo14:30
xG 0.73–0.41 (64%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Tanev – McCabe13:06
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Benoit15:11
xG 0.24–1.13 (18%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).