Thu, Oct 16, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Winnipeg Jets 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 15 | 25 | 25 | 515 |
| PHI | 03 | 112 | 12 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45WPGVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 7:01WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 16:22PHIOwen TippettAssists: Trevor Zegras, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 17:43WPGMorgan BarronGWGAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 9:40WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Kyle Connor, Alex Iafallo · Slap, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 17:39PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Noah Juulsen, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 18:47WPGTanner PearsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:28WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P2 12:38WPGJonathan Toews: Holding2 min
- P3 9:16PHITrevor Zegras: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:38WPGJonathan Toews: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Niederreiter – Namestnikov10:27
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Barron – Koepke – Ford7:18
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Pearson – Iafallo9:42
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:58
xG 0.07–0.55 (12%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Fleury9:48
xG 0.24–0.08 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stanley – Pionk16:15
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey18:10
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Tippett – Zegras10:08
xG 0.52–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster10:49
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Michkov12:09
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Grebenkin – Luchanko8:17
xG 0.00–0.51 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York17:23
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Seeler – Drysdale17:14
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Juulsen – Ginning9:43
xG 0.01–0.25 (4%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).