Thu, Oct 16, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 012 | 314 | 110 | 436 |
| CBJ | 07 | 17 | 09 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:36CBJIvan ProvorovAssists: Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 10:34COLCale MakarAssists: Martin Necas, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 11:46COLBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Josh Manson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 19:56COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Sam Malinski, Victor Olofsson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 18:07COLValeri NichushkinENAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.81 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:32COLBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:20COLMartin Necas: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:47CBJDmitri Voronkov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Colton – Drury8:37
xG 1.10–0.26 (81%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin12:05
xG 0.98–0.26 (79%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas12:43
xG 0.82–0.44 (65%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Kelly – Kiviranta – Brindley7:28
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSolovyov – Malinski10:17
xG 1.00–0.02 (98%)attempts 22–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar17:01
xG 1.08–0.56 (66%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
- Burns – Malinski3:43
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Jenner – Olivier10:50
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Johnson – Sillinger – Fantilli2:32
xG 0.14–0.09 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Voronkov – Sillinger – Fantilli6:48
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Aston-Reese – Lundeström – Chinakhov6:05
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Mateychuk5:18
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Provorov – Fabbro2:52
xG 0.15–0.08 (67%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Christiansen – Mateychuk5:37
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).