Thu, Oct 16, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Boston Bruins 5, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 29 | 17 | 28 | 524 |
| VGK | 211 | 313 | 113 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:05BOSTanner JeannotAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 3:35VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Whitecloud · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 16:44BOSNikita ZadorovAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P1 18:33VGKCole ReinhardtAssists: Ben Hutton, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 4:14VGKJack EichelAssists: Mark Stone, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 6:35VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Mark Stone · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–4
- P2 8:15BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Morgan Geekie, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P2 18:24VGKWilliam KarlssonSHAssists: Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 2:19VGKWilliam KarlssonPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–6
- P3 4:05BOSMark KastelicAssists: Sean Kuraly · Snap, 0.06 xG4–6
- P3 5:12BOSMichael EyssimontAssists: Mason Lohrei · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–6
Penalties (8)
- P2 5:27BOSElias Lindholm: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:16VGKJeremy Lauzon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:26BOSMichael Eyssimont: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:57BOSPavel Zacha: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:50VGKKaedan Korczak: Interference2 min
- P3 1:02BOSCharlie McAvoy: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:14VGKTomas Hertl: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:56BOSMorgan Geekie: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie8:38
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Viel – Kastelic10:20
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Eyssimont – Jeannot – Minten7:26
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Arvidsson – Geekie – Mittelstadt2:42
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Jokiharju12:54
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei16:56
xG 0.90–0.91 (50%)attempts 23–22goals 2–1
- Peeke – Harris9:26
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Marner – Dorofeyev9:08
xG 0.79–0.27 (75%)attempts 18–4goals 1–1
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel12:44
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Smith – Saad – Karlsson8:30
xG 0.32–0.62 (34%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt8:15
xG 0.04–0.39 (10%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Whitecloud11:34
xG 1.01–0.56 (64%)attempts 16–14goals 3–2
- McNabb – Theodore16:27
xG 0.70–0.61 (53%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Korczak13:23
xG 0.20–0.56 (26%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).