Sat, Oct 18, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 0, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 012 | 010 | 010 | 032 |
| BUF | 18 | 213 | 010 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13BUFJosh DoanPPGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 11:12BUFJosh DoanPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Zach Benson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 14:20BUFOwen PowerAssists: Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:09BUFZach Benson: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:51BUFBowen Byram: Interference2 min
- P1 7:07FLAUvis Balinskis: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:28BUFJack Quinn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:45BUFPeyton Krebs: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:53FLAAnton Lundell: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:14FLANiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
- P2 5:00BUFJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:40FLABrad Marchand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:40FLABrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:40BUFTage Thompson: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:04BUFMason Geertsen: Abusive language10 min
- P2 19:48BUFJosh Doan: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:48BUFMattias Samuelsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:48FLAEetu Luostarinen: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:10BUFConor Timmins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kulich won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Reinhart – Bennett10:08
xG 0.37–0.30 (56%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich6:54
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Greer – Kunin – Gadjovich7:32
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
- Marchand – Luostarinen – Lundell7:44
xG 0.15–0.82 (16%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Forsling2:21
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Balinskis7:16
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling8:56
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Kulich – Benson10:24
xG 0.68–0.19 (78%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Zucker – Krebs – Quinn10:08
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Tuch – McLeod – Doan7:27
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Byram4:28
xG 0.63–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Timmins – Power5:35
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Byram3:18
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).