Sat, Oct 18, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Minnesota Wild 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 03 | 18 | 04 | 01 | 116 |
| PHI | 06 | 05 | 19 | 11 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:55MINVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Marco Rossi, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 7:10PHIOwen TippettAssists: Trevor Zegras, Christian Dvorak · Backhand, 0.00 xG1–1
- OT 2:37PHINoah CatesGWGAssists: Tyson Foerster, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:56PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:56MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:07MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min
- P2 1:55PHITrevor Zegras: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 4:34PHIOwen Tippett: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:52MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:00PHIJamie Drysdale: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Trenin – Yurov5:39
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Hartman6:20
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Trenin2:04
xG 0.01–0.01 (56%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy9:43
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Middleton3:08
xG 0.01–0.08 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Buium12:55
xG 0.34–0.46 (42%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber17:04
xG 0.40–0.65 (38%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Tippett – Zegras9:12
xG 0.68–0.21 (76%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster12:55
xG 0.43–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett3:49
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Michkov7:02
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale11:09
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Sanheim – York18:18
xG 0.61–0.31 (67%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Seeler – Sanheim2:30
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).