Sat, Oct 18, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 213 | 115 | 011 | 11 | 440 |
| LAK | 08 | 212 | 18 | 00 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:12CARJordan StaalAssists: William Carrier, Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 3:58CARJordan StaalAssists: Mike Reilly, Jalen Chatfield · Slap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 3:43CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: K'Andre Miller · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 4:35LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Phillip Danault, Joel Edmundson · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 16:04LAKAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 11:02LAKKevin FialaAssists: Adrian Kempe · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 1:45CARSeth JarvisGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:41LAKAdrian Kempe: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:55CARJackson Blake: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:46LAKKevin Fiala: Holding2 min
- P2 19:21LAKWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Byfield
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Carrier10:40
xG 0.76–0.14 (85%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake11:44
xG 0.44–0.34 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Ehlers – Aho – Jarvis13:11
xG 0.88–0.90 (49%)attempts 17–24goals 0–0
- Robinson – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov9:35
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller13:33
xG 1.13–0.37 (75%)attempts 27–11goals 1–0
- Reilly – Chatfield8:14
xG 0.59–0.21 (73%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
- Chatfield – Miller4:40
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Foegele – Moore12:41
xG 0.94–0.69 (58%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
- Armia – Malott – Helenius3:11
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Fiala – Kempe – Byfield8:08
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Armia – Fiala – Byfield6:30
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Dumoulin21:07
xG 0.94–0.79 (54%)attempts 24–21goals 0–1
- Ceci – Anderson16:48
xG 0.45–0.78 (37%)attempts 14–23goals 1–1
- Edmundson – Clarke13:07
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).