Mon, Oct 20, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 19 | 010 | 127 |
| VGK | 28 | 07 | 211 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:42VGKJack EichelAssists: Brandon Saad, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:28VGKPavel DorofeyevGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Tomas Hertl · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 4:18CARSebastian AhoAssists: Seth Jarvis, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 11:06VGKIvan BarbashevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 18:23VGKWilliam KarlssonENAssists: Mitch Marner, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.57 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:43CARSean Walker: Interference2 min
- P1 19:45VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:22CARNikolaj Ehlers: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:46VGKTomas Hertl: Interference2 min
- P2 14:33VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:34CARNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:01CARAlexander Nikishin: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:39VGKColton Sissons: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake10:45
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier8:11
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Aho – Jarvis11:47
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Robinson – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov7:02
xG 0.03–0.46 (7%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Legault8:31
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Walker – Miller13:33
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
- Chatfield – Nikishin14:48
xG 0.38–0.94 (29%)attempts 19–24goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Barbashev – Eichel10:33
xG 0.78–0.16 (83%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Holtz7:55
xG 0.28–0.12 (69%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hertl – Marner – Dorofeyev10:29
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt6:14
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Whitecloud12:30
xG 0.87–0.57 (60%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:11
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Korczak12:54
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).