Tue, Oct 21, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 16 | 16 | 010 | 13 | 325 |
| OTT | 06 | 011 | 24 | 00 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:31EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 0:49EDMIsaac HowardAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 0:13OTTDylan CozensPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 1:49OTTThomas ChabotAssists: David Perron · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 2:24EDMJake WalmanPPGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Matt Savoie · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:41EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:51OTTTim Stützle: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:41EDMIsaac Howard: Holding2 min
- P2 16:27OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:40EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 0:25OTTTim Stützle: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Podkolzin11:32
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Mangiapane – Roslovic9:24
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Frederic – Philp – Savoie9:24
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Henrique – Howard – Tomasek7:01
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard14:54
xG 0.90–0.39 (70%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Nurse – Walman15:30
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Kulak – Emberson13:55
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Cousins – Greig10:02
xG 0.90–0.04 (96%)attempts 13–1goals 1–0
- Eller – Zetterlund – Lycksell9:56
xG 0.00–0.18 (1%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto8:21
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Batherson – Cozens – Stützle12:23
xG 0.10–0.63 (14%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKleven – Matinpalo10:35
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kleven – Zub2:15
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub13:58
xG 0.25–0.40 (39%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).