Tue, Oct 21, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Vancouver Canucks 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 111 | 03 | 010 | 124 |
| PIT | 16 | 314 | 16 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18VANConor GarlandAssists: Elias Pettersson, Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 11:39PITConnor DewarAssists: Parker Wotherspoon, Noel Acciari · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 14:21PITTommy NovakPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Justin Brazeau · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 16:18PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 17:29PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Justin Brazeau · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 5:56PITJustin BrazeauPPAssists: Anthony Mantha, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:23VANEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:14PITRyan Shea: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:07VANMax Sasson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:58VANDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:01PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P3 4:07VANMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:16PITFilip Hallander: Interference2 min
- P3 16:51VANPierre-Olivier Joseph: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Räty
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLaBate – Aman – Räty2:31
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Bains – Sasson8:20
xG 0.68–0.41 (62%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- LaBate – O'Connor – Aman5:28
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
- DeBrusk – Garland – Pettersson6:39
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Joseph5:02
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hronek – Joseph2:24
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hughes – Pettersson2:30
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Hallander – Kindel6:13
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell10:12
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Malkin – Mantha – Brazeau7:54
xG 0.77–0.96 (44%)attempts 6–18goals 1–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte8:39
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon10:47
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Letang – Shea8:26
xG 0.78–0.40 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Jones – Brunicke13:19
xG 0.68–0.85 (45%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).