Wed, Oct 22, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Montréal Canadiens 2, Calgary Flames 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 09 | 08 | 11 | 228 |
| CGY | 09 | 018 | 110 | 00 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:09MTLZachary BolducPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 5:56CGYAdam KlapkaAssists: Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 1:00MTLMike MathesonGWGAssists: Ivan Demidov, Alex Newhook · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:35MTLJakub Dobes: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:42CGYAdam Klapka: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:28CGYRasmus Andersson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:34MTLZachary Bolduc: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:02MTLOliver Kapanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:37MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:18MTLNoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:34CGYMorgan Frost: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:59
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov7:49
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans9:24
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Veleno – Bolduc – Roy6:11
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Dobson16:53
xG 1.04–0.40 (72%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Carrier – Xhekaj6:14
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Carrier – Hutson6:05
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Farabee9:52
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Frost – Zary – Honzek6:50
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato10:09
xG 0.16–0.27 (38%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka6:37
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Bean15:35
xG 0.62–0.13 (83%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
- Hanley – Parekh8:14
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Weegar – Bahl2:57
xG 0.02–0.34 (6%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).