Thu, Oct 23, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 07 | 07 | 123 |
| OTT | 114 | 19 | 010 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29PHITyson FoersterAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 7:57OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Claude Giroux, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 3:05OTTOlle LycksellGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:17PHIBobby Brink: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:18OTTNick Cousins: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:04PHIMatvei Michkov: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:39PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:39PHINick Seeler: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 17:39OTTDavid Perron: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 18:37OTTNick Jensen: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:09PHINick Seeler: Interference2 min
- P3 4:43OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- P3 6:30PHITrevor Zegras: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Zegras – Michkov6:37
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster8:56
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett10:57
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Hathaway – Abols – Grebenkin4:10
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale13:50
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York12:45
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 10–18goals 1–2
- Juulsen – Zamula7:40
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Perron – Cousins – Greig8:59
xG 0.06–0.02 (70%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Zetterlund – Lycksell5:12
xG 0.24–0.37 (40%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Batherson – Cozens – Stützle9:05
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto10:20
xG 0.42–0.88 (32%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Sanderson – Zub12:34
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Jensen – Chabot15:48
xG 0.67–0.68 (50%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo10:05
xG 0.04–0.18 (20%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).