Thu, Oct 23, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 26 | 24 | 517 |
| FLA | 06 | 113 | 218 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 6:36PITRickard RakellAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 8:26FLABrad MarchandPPAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Seth Jones · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 15:24PITBen KindelAssists: Tommy Novak · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 2:24FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 4:49PITConnor DewarGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 11:06FLABrad MarchandAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 11:49PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:48FLAJeff Petry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:00PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:00PITParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:00FLAAnton Lundell: Interference2 min
- P2 8:08PITConnor Clifton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:32PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:34FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte8:51
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell14:17
xG 0.30–0.72 (29%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- Novak – Hallander – Kindel8:56
xG 0.19–0.63 (23%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Malkin – Mantha – Brazeau12:48
xG 0.21–1.22 (15%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon13:02
xG 0.49–0.71 (41%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Letang – Shea15:44
xG 0.44–0.80 (35%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Clifton – Jones14:33
xG 0.11–1.17 (9%)attempts 9–21goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Reinhart – Rodrigues8:11
xG 1.17–0.14 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Marchand – Luostarinen – Lundell13:47
xG 1.08–0.15 (88%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Bennett – Boqvist – Samoskevich6:22
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich4:28
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Balinskis11:48
xG 0.87–0.24 (78%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Jones – Mikkola14:36
xG 0.97–0.44 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling19:19
xG 1.05–0.53 (66%)attempts 27–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).