Thu, Oct 23, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Detroit Red Wings 2, New York Islanders 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 014 | 215 | 234 |
| NYI | 211 | 311 | 28 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:05NYITony DeAngeloAssists: Anders Lee, Simon Holmstrom · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 14:56NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Bo Horvat, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 7:25NYIJean-Gabriel PageauGWGAssists: Anders Lee, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 13:09NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Ryan Pulock, Mathew Barzal · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–4
- P2 19:34NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
- P3 3:11DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Emmitt Finnie, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–5
- P3 7:19NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Bo Horvat, Ryan Pulock · Snap, 0.09 xG1–6
- P3 7:57NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Anders Lee, Scott Mayfield · Snap, 0.10 xG1–7
- P3 17:20DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: J.T. Compher, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:16DETSimon Edvinsson: Holding2 min
- P1 18:36NYIKyle Palmieri: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:47DETSimon Edvinsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:09DETJonatan Berggren: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 17:14NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:25NYIMathew Barzal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:55NYICasey Cizikas: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:30NYIKyle MacLean: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DETMason Appleton: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYIKyle MacLean: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00DETMason Appleton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00NYIScott Mayfield: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Berggren – Brandsegg-Nygård6:47
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 16–4goals 1–1
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Finnie10:06
xG 0.77–0.58 (57%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Copp – Raymond – Kasper8:51
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
- Appleton – Rasmussen – Soderblom7:23
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Johansson8:41
xG 1.14–0.35 (77%)attempts 22–5goals 1–2
- Chiarot – Seider11:07
xG 0.44–0.50 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Seider – Johansson2:10
xG 0.00–0.07 (5%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Holmstrom8:27
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 14–12goals 3–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Tsyplakov6:57
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Drouin – Horvat – Heineman10:00
xG 0.44–0.58 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Palmieri – Duclair – Barzal9:50
xG 0.36–0.70 (34%)attempts 6–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- DeAngelo – Boqvist10:50
xG 0.33–0.48 (40%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock10:50
xG 0.59–0.79 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Schaefer13:06
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).