Thu, Oct 23, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
San Jose Sharks 6, New York Rangers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 39 | 110 | 13 | 12 | 624 |
| NYR | 15 | 314 | 18 | 01 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58SJSAdam GaudetteAssists: Collin Graf, Michael Misa · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 6:17SJSMacklin CelebriniPPAssists: William Eklund, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 14:19NYRTaylor RaddyshAssists: Sam Carrick, Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 19:51SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Will Smith, William Eklund · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 4:04NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 6:47NYRJuuso ParssinenAssists: Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 12:10NYRTaylor RaddyshSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P2 19:54SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Will Smith, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 6:31SJSWill SmithAssists: William Eklund, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–4
- P3 11:50NYRTaylor RaddyshAssists: J.T. Miller, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.07 xG5–5
- OT 1:38SJSWill SmithGWGAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Alex Nedeljkovic · Slap, 0.18 xG6–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:55NYRMatt Rempe: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 5:55SJSRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:11NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:19SJSTimothy Liljegren: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:34SJSWill Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:09NYRAlexis Lafrenière: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:56SJSTy Dellandrea: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:51NYRMatthew Robertson: Interference2 min
- P3 0:48SJSVincent Desharnais: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:24NYRWill Cuylle: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:30NYRTaylor Raddysh: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Gaudette – Graf – Misa6:48
xG 0.21–0.19 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Wennberg – Eklund – Graf2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Dellandrea5:55
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Wennberg – Eklund10:58
xG 0.19–0.61 (23%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Iorio3:40
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
- Orlov – Iorio2:46
xG 0.03–0.10 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Orlov – Desharnais2:56
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Panarin – Lafrenière11:29
xG 0.84–0.32 (72%)attempts 17–6goals 0–2
- Carrick – Raddysh – Edstrom6:26
xG 0.33–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Miller – Sheary – Raddysh2:38
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheary – Cuylle10:56
xG 0.19–0.22 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox17:12
xG 0.73–0.25 (74%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Schneider2:50
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Borgen – Robertson10:58
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).