Thu, Oct 23, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 5, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 112 | 39 | 16 | 527 |
| EDM | 16 | 28 | 315 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:28MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Lane Hutson, Oliver Kapanen · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 16:12EDMDavid TomasekAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Noah Philp · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:37EDMAdam HenriqueAssists: Jake Walman, Mattias Ekholm · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 13:28EDMAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 16:57MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Jake Evans · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 18:00MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Noah Dobson, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 18:49MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 2:10MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Oliver Kapanen, Jayden Struble · Snap, 0.21 xG5–3
- P3 11:19EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.27 xG5–4
- P3 12:17EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–5
- P3 18:51EDMVasily PodkolzinGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Jake Walman · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:28EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:21MTLAlexandre Carrier: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:25MTLMike Matheson: Interference2 min
- P3 3:10MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:41MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:19MTLJosh Anderson: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
- P3 18:51MTLJosh Anderson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:02
xG 1.27–0.23 (85%)attempts 23–14goals 2–1
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov8:05
xG 0.86–0.22 (79%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans10:21
xG 0.71–0.41 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Veleno – Dach – Bolduc7:42
xG 0.55–0.39 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Hutson4:27
xG 0.72–0.00 (99%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Carrier – Xhekaj2:48
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Matheson – Carrier8:40
xG 0.71–0.44 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMangiapane – McDavid – Howard4:04
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Henrique – Nugent-Hopkins – Roslovic4:23
xG 0.14–0.22 (38%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Henrique – Howard – Tomasek3:39
xG 0.30–0.54 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Mangiapane – Roslovic6:15
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Nurse – Walman16:32
xG 0.86–1.11 (44%)attempts 18–18goals 2–1
- Kulak – Emberson13:49
xG 0.54–0.86 (39%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard13:30
xG 0.25–1.22 (17%)attempts 9–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).