Fri, Oct 24, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 3, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 19 | 115 | 333 |
| WPG | 05 | 416 | 111 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Morgan Frost, Zayne Parekh · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:19WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Josh Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:24WPGJonathan ToewsAssists: Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 9:50WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 13:56CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Blake Coleman, Samuel Honzek · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 18:50WPGAlex IafalloPPGWGAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 8:27CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Mikael Backlund, Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 19:52WPGVladislav NamestnikovENAssists: Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–5
Penalties (18)
- P1 0:19WPGNikita Chibrikov: Holding2 min
- P1 4:40WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:03CGYAdam Klapka: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:03WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:33CGYMatt Coronato: Interference2 min
- P1 14:37CGYAdam Klapka: Holding2 min
- P2 3:45CGYRyan Lomberg: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:45WPGNikita Chibrikov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:24CGYMatt Coronato: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 8:30CGYKevin Bahl: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:01CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00WPGNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:55CGYMorgan Frost: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:40WPGTanner Pearson: Holding2 min
- P3 5:59CGYJonathan Huberdeau: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:17WPGNino Niederreiter: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:30CGYMatt Coronato: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:10WPGHaydn Fleury: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Honzek7:25
xG 0.55–0.09 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Klapka2:29
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Farabee – Sharangovich – Zary7:31
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Frost – Klapka2:43
xG 0.01–0.02 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Parekh7:31
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl11:12
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 2–1
- Weegar – Bean10:23
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Niederreiter – Namestnikov7:37
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi8:48
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Toews – Iafallo – Chibrikov5:47
xG 0.09–0.20 (30%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
- Pearson – Barron – Koepke7:00
xG 0.00–0.86 (0%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeMelo – Morrissey10:38
xG 0.52–0.51 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Fleury – Pionk9:56
xG 0.44–0.50 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Miller – Stanley6:11
xG 0.03–0.71 (4%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).