Sat, Oct 25, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 4, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 213 | 28 | 08 | 429 |
| DET | 04 | 315 | 39 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:43STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Jimmy Snuggerud · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 12:54STLJake NeighboursAssists: Justin Faulk, Robert Thomas · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 0:59STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Dylan Holloway, Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 3:12STLJake NeighboursAssists: Robert Thomas, Jimmy Snuggerud · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 7:52DETJonatan BerggrenPPAssists: Andrew Copp, Axel Sandin-Pellikka · Snap, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 18:34DETEmmitt FinnieUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG4–2
- P2 19:01DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Travis Hamonic, Andrew Copp · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 10:01DETAlex DeBrincatUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 10:48DETSimon EdvinssonGWGAssists: J.T. Compher, Jonatan Berggren · Wrist, 0.00 xG4–5
- P3 18:47DETSimon EdvinssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:52DETJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:32STLCam Fowler: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:27DETSimon Edvinsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:25STLMatthew Kessel: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:33DETJ.T. Compher: Holding2 min
- P3 5:08STLNick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:07DETMarco Kasper: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Holloway4:49
xG 0.86–0.15 (85%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Walker – Suter8:12
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Sundqvist – Holloway5:04
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Thomas – Neighbours – Snuggerud6:02
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Broberg13:36
xG 1.28–0.47 (73%)attempts 17–9goals 1–2
- Tucker – Kessel4:27
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Fowler – Parayko17:36
xG 0.87–0.80 (52%)attempts 17–22goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Compher – Appleton2:33
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Appleton – DeBrincat – Kasper5:39
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Copp – Compher – Brandsegg-Nygård2:07
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Copp – Compher2:16
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Chiarot3:44
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 8–1goals 2–0
- Seider – Johansson2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka7:04
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).