Sat, Oct 25, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 27 | 012 | 09 | 228 |
| DAL | 07 | 215 | 112 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14CARJackson BlakeUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 19:49CARSebastian AhoAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 1:04DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 5:41DALSam SteelPPAssists: Thomas Harley, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 11:18DALMiro HeiskanenPPGWGAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:26CARTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:17DALMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:06CARJoel Nystrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:40DALEsa Lindell: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:31DALNathan Bastian: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:55CARTaylor Hall: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 11:01CARSeth Jarvis: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake10:04
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Svechnikov8:50
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Aho – Jarvis11:05
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Jankowski – Kotkaniemi – Nadeau7:14
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikishin – Legault3:47
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Reilly – Legault5:12
xG 0.37–0.26 (58%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Chatfield – Nikishin3:06
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRobertson – Bourque – Johnston9:09
xG 1.31–0.41 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Steel8:45
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Seguin – Blackwell – Erne8:27
xG 0.03–0.21 (13%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Faksa – Bastian – Hryckowian5:10
xG 0.10–0.49 (17%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen11:21
xG 1.21–0.37 (76%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Heiskanen – Harley3:22
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Lyubushkin – Harley12:58
xG 0.16–0.43 (26%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).