Sun, Oct 26, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 6, Minnesota Wild 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 210 | 29 | 15 | 11 | 625 |
| MIN | 28 | 06 | 317 | 02 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28SJSWilliam EklundPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:35SJSMichael MisaAssists: Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P1 17:02MINMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Marco Rossi, Brock Faber · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 17:34MINMarco RossiAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 11:15SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Philipp Kurashev · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 11:34SJSRyan ReavesAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Ty Dellandrea · Deflected, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 4:28MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 7:52SJSTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, William Eklund · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 8:28MINZeev BuiumAssists: Ryan Hartman, Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–4
- P3 17:42MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–5
- OT 3:47SJSMacklin CelebriniGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:47MINVinnie Hinostroza: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:07SJSDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min
- P1 15:28SJSVincent Iorio: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:14SJSDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:11SJSMichael Misa: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:59MINJake Middleton: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGaudette – Graf – Misa5:38
xG 0.63–0.07 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Dellandrea3:10
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Wennberg – Kurashev – Eklund13:59
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Eklund – Graf – Misa3:17
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Dickinson8:47
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Orlov – Liljegren15:26
xG 1.04–0.76 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Ferraro – Iorio13:09
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy3:52
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Hartman – Trenin8:16
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Jones – Yurov3:44
xG 0.07–0.23 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Johansson – Kaprizov – Rossi12:23
xG 0.49–0.73 (40%)attempts 8–6goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber14:13
xG 0.71–0.41 (63%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin2:16
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Faber – Buium4:07
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).