Sun, Oct 26, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 3, Nashville Predators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 213 | 19 | 328 |
| NSH | 18 | 18 | 09 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:02NSHJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 7:15NSHSpencer StastneyAssists: Luke Evangelista, Justin Barron · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 9:36DALOskar BäckAssists: Radek Faksa, Thomas Harley · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 16:29DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jason Robertson · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 10:44DALMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:57NSHErik Haula: Holding2 min
- P1 7:12DALMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:45NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:25NSHCole Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:06DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:11NSHTyson Jost: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:45NSHNicolas Hague: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRobertson – Bourque – Johnston9:30
xG 0.84–0.59 (59%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Faksa – Bastian – Bäck5:03
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Erne – Hryckowian5:30
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Seguin – Rantanen – Steel7:52
xG 0.14–0.25 (35%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen12:14
xG 0.89–0.24 (79%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Lindell – Harley3:05
xG 0.26–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Bichsel10:50
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Smith – Wiesblatt9:09
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Marchessault – Forsberg3:03
xG 0.21–0.12 (65%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Jost – Evangelista8:34
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Haula – Marchessault – Bunting7:36
xG 0.05–0.48 (10%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStastney – Barron11:24
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 13–2goals 1–1
- Skjei – Perbix14:52
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Hague – Wilsby14:58
xG 0.39–0.73 (34%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).