Mon, Oct 27, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 2, Ottawa Senators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 19 | 011 | 18 | 228 |
| OTT | 110 | 24 | 49 | 723 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06BOSMorgan GeekieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 10:25OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Ridly Greig, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 1:08OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Michael Amadio, Shane Pinto · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 14:44OTTDrake BathersonGWGAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 0:13OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 9:33OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Dylan Cozens · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 12:22OTTNick CousinsAssists: Tim Stützle, Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.21 xG1–6
- P3 13:04OTTFabian ZetterlundPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, David Perron · Slap, 0.03 xG1–7
- P3 19:50BOSViktor ArvidssonAssists: Fraser Minten, Tanner Jeannot · Slap, 0.09 xG2–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:40BOSMichael Eyssimont: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:16BOSMark Kastelic: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:08BOSNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:14OTTDylan Cozens: Holding2 min
- P3 9:18BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:43BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Minten
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEyssimont – Jeannot – Minten7:29
xG 0.46–0.04 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt7:38
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Eyssimont – Kastelic3:01
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Arvidsson – Jeannot – Minten4:14
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – McAvoy3:24
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Callahan16:18
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 19–6goals 1–1
- Peeke – Lohrei5:27
xG 0.08–0.07 (55%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Amadio – Pinto12:42
xG 0.80–0.09 (90%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Cousins – Batherson – Stützle8:54
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Perron – Cozens – Greig9:47
xG 0.11–0.15 (44%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Eller – MacDermid – Zetterlund7:16
xG 0.07–0.38 (16%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot15:33
xG 1.05–0.52 (67%)attempts 10–18goals 3–0
- Sanderson – Zub14:22
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Kleven – Zub2:08
xG 0.01–0.07 (12%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).