Tue, Oct 28, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 05 | 19 | 04 | 1 | 226 |
| PHI | 110 | 114 | 08 | 02 | 2 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:19PITJustin BrazeauAssists: Anthony Mantha, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:25PHIBobby BrinkPPAssists: Noah Cates, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 2:46PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Sean Couturier, Bobby Brink · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 11:57PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Filip Hallander, Bryan Rust · Backhand, 0.00 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 2. PIT Bryan Rust stopped
- 3. PHI Matvei Michkov scored
- 4. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
- 5. PHI Bobby Brink scored
- 6. PIT Ville Koivunen stopped
Penalties (16)
- P1 11:19PHIGarnet Hathaway: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:53PITMathew Dumba: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:37PHIBobby Brink: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:24PHICam York: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:24PITMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:15PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- OT 0:49PHITrevor Zegras: Slashing2 min
- OT 3:14PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- OT 5:00PITSidney Crosby: Misconduct10 min
- OT 5:00PITRyan Shea: Misconduct10 min
- OT 5:00PITParker Wotherspoon: Misconduct10 min
- OT 5:00PHITrevor Zegras: Misconduct10 min
- OT 5:00PITNoel Acciari: Misconduct10 min
- OT 5:00PHITyson Foerster: Misconduct10 min
- OT 5:00PHIOwen Tippett: Misconduct10 min
- OT 5:00PHIJamie Drysdale: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Mantha – Brazeau11:34
xG 0.34–0.27 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Novak – Koivunen – Kindel8:29
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte8:22
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Hallander13:08
xG 0.24–1.05 (19%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Letang – Karlsson2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon16:43
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Letang – Shea13:45
xG 0.38–0.64 (37%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Foerster11:49
xG 0.62–0.06 (91%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett10:49
xG 0.28–0.25 (54%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Zegras – Michkov10:32
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Abols7:33
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale16:24
xG 0.94–0.37 (72%)attempts 24–14goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York18:06
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Juulsen – Zamula8:55
xG 0.21–0.58 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).