Tue, Oct 28, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 26 | 018 | 411 | 635 |
| CAR | 18 | 17 | 19 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:27VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Mitch Marner, Tomas Hertl · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 18:03VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 12:07CARJordan MartinookUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 2:31CARLogan StankovenAssists: Jalen Chatfield, Jackson Blake · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 6:10VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Cole Reinhardt, Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
- P3 15:01VGKJack EichelGWGAssists: Ivan Barbashev · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 17:36VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.23 xG5–3
- P3 19:38VGKTomas HertlENAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.60 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:44VGKJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:57CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:41CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:19CARJordan Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:34CARSean Walker: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:39VGKBrett Howden: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:39CARNikolaj Ehlers: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Eichel – Holtz8:49
xG 1.65–0.43 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Hertl – Marner – Dorofeyev9:01
xG 1.08–0.07 (94%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Reinhardt11:04
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Saad – Barbashev – Eichel2:35
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore17:08
xG 1.95–0.65 (75%)attempts 26–18goals 3–1
- Lauzon – Korczak18:58
xG 1.13–0.36 (76%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Hutton – Whitecloud10:27
xG 0.53–0.38 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake13:12
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Jankowski – Kotkaniemi – Nadeau8:04
xG 0.11–0.69 (13%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Svechnikov10:06
xG 0.41–1.17 (26%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Aho – Jarvis11:59
xG 0.31–1.19 (21%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Nikishin8:19
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield6:30
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Walker – Nystrom2:52
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).