Tue, Oct 28, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 29 | 05 | 16 | 11 | 421 |
| MIN | 016 | 212 | 17 | 00 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:16WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Mark Scheifele, Logan Stanley · Bat, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 12:38WPGVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Neal Pionk, Logan Stanley · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 6:03MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 13:12MINBrock FaberAssists: Marco Rossi, Vinnie Hinostroza · Slap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 3:48MINMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Brock Faber, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 11:35WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Morgan Barron · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 0:46WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:18WPGHaydn Fleury: Interference2 min
- P2 3:49MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:49WPGLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:37WPGAlex Iafallo: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:59MINMatt Boldy: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:30WPGLogan Stanley: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:37WPGTanner Pearson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barron won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Niederreiter – Barron10:58
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Pearson – Koepke – Ford6:08
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:48
xG 0.60–0.97 (38%)attempts 12–26goals 1–1
- Toews – Namestnikov – Iafallo12:41
xG 0.29–0.75 (28%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- DeMelo – Morrissey18:52
xG 0.78–0.97 (44%)attempts 14–25goals 0–1
- Schenn – Fleury7:01
xG 0.24–0.49 (33%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Stanley – Pionk18:37
xG 0.83–1.30 (39%)attempts 16–25goals 3–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Trenin – Yurov7:39
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Eriksson Ek – Boldy8:35
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Hartman8:03
xG 0.36–0.31 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Johansson – Tarasenko – Eriksson Ek3:11
xG 0.31–0.29 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber13:56
xG 0.96–0.39 (71%)attempts 29–9goals 1–1
- Jiricek – Buium9:55
xG 0.55–0.24 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton16:08
xG 0.88–0.77 (54%)attempts 19–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).