Tue, Oct 28, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
New Jersey Devils 4, Colorado Avalanche 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 016 | 411 | 03 | 430 |
| COL | 212 | 417 | 213 | 842 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24COLMartin NecasPPAssists: Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 3:49COLZakhar BardakovAssists: Parker Kelly, Gavin Brindley · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 2:31COLVictor OlofssonAssists: Jack Ahcan, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 7:11COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Victor Olofsson · Slap, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 8:39COLParker KellyGWGAssists: Ross Colton, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–5
- P2 10:08NJDStefan NoesenAssists: Paul Cotter · Snap, 0.11 xG1–5
- P2 11:48NJDDougie HamiltonAssists: Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–5
- P2 13:42NJDDawson MercerAssists: Nico Hischier, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–5
- P2 14:12NJDJack HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.08 xG4–5
- P2 15:24COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Victor Olofsson · Slap, 0.05 xG4–6
- P3 3:10COLVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–7
- P3 17:38COLVictor OlofssonAssists: Jack Drury · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–8
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:18NJDJacob Markstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 10:33NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min
- P1 14:11COLMartin Necas: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:02NJDStefan Noesen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:13NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:54NJDTimo Meier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:01COLJosh Manson: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:33NJDLuke Glendening: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lammikko – Gritsyuk8:38
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer7:34
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes8:55
xG 0.37–0.34 (53%)attempts 14–5goals 2–1
- Noesen – Glendening – Cotter9:33
xG 0.60–1.14 (34%)attempts 7–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Hughes13:20
xG 0.77–0.68 (53%)attempts 17–14goals 3–0
- Dillon – Casey14:59
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 17–11goals 0–2
- Siegenthaler – Nemec14:03
xG 0.73–0.98 (43%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas11:22
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton10:21
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Olofsson – Drury7:51
xG 0.65–0.66 (50%)attempts 9–16goals 2–3
- Kelly – Bardakov – Brindley7:18
xG 0.68–0.77 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAhcan – Malinski9:47
xG 1.15–0.15 (89%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Burns – Malinski3:42
xG 0.32–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Manson – Ahcan2:47
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).