Tue, Oct 28, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Utah Mammoth 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 29 | 15 | 09 | 323 |
| EDM | 03 | 515 | 16 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25UTALogan CooleyAssists: Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:45UTAJJ PeterkaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 0:22EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 3:13EDMIsaac HowardAssists: Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 8:19UTABarrett HaytonAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 13:33EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Jake Walman, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 14:10EDMTy EmbersonGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P2 17:56EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jake Walman · Snap, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 17:34EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.54 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P3 1:53UTALiam O'Brien: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:05EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:22EDMIsaac Howard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Cooley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – Carcone – McBain9:43
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton14:57
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Peterka – Guenther – Cooley12:19
xG 0.77–0.60 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 2–2
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev6:36
xG 0.08–0.59 (12%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Sergachev3:13
xG 0.61–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Simashev15:29
xG 0.84–0.55 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Cole – Maatta7:11
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Roslovic – Podkolzin12:29
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Mangiapane – McDavid13:01
xG 0.50–0.54 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Henrique – Frederic – Savoie7:57
xG 0.14–0.41 (26%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Walman6:04
xG 0.68–0.04 (95%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard9:59
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Kulak – Stecher2:04
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).